Is Television Doomed?

As I was sitting on my couch last night, preparing to watch the one hour of television left to me after the 5 year-old had gone to bed, it struck me that when it comes to the simple supply-and-demand economics of television watching, things are completely out-of-whack.

My demand: one hour of entertainment. The supply: effectively infinite.

Within the realm of supply, my choices include a "live" show, something I've recorded on my PVR, or a universe of content available on Netflix, Crave, On-Demand (movies or television, pay or free), DVD, the Internet, and so on. 

Admittedly, last night was a little extreme: I had only one-hour available. But even with two hours, or five, or five-per-night, or ten...I can never, ever, come close to exhausting the supply.

So what? As consumers, supply greatly exceeding demand means low prices (see Netflix, see Crave being added to my current subscription without additional cost, see the Internet), lots of ready options, and a competitive fight for quality as providers battle for the scant supply. No?

But isn't television a different kind of marketplace? We've got the low prices and a large number of options for sure. But what about quality? There is now, on the market, a virtually inexhaustible supply of quality content available (even on my PVR, I am coming to realize that I can never catch up to the good stuff I've recorded).

The problem, though, is that all that quality content is old content - whether 1-month old or 60-years old - it's old. And the experience of watching the old content is better than watching the new: There are no commercials; I can watch an entire series all-at-once without waiting a week-at-a-time; I can sift through lots and lots of other viewers' recommendations before choosing what I consume; and if there's something I don't understand, I can read lots and lots of essays and opinions about it.

The new content, therefore is getting fewer and fewer eyeballs. I'm hearing more and more people who aren't buying a television and/or paying for cable anymore. Those of us who are, are consuming old content instead of new. Which means that we're not paying for new content (e.g. by watching commercials and buying the advertised products). Which means that new content is becoming less and less lucrative to create. Which must mean, ultimately, that the supply of new, high-quality television content is going to (continue to?) decline significantly.

If there's less new content being created, then guess what? The series that we're all planning to watch five years from now won't have been produced. And the shows that should be offering commentary on what's going on in the world TODAY, won't be getting made.

Take The Newsroom, for example. I think it was a great show. I think it had some really important things to say about what's going on in the world, and I think it was saying it really well. This season in particular, I think it was starting to get going on some really pressing issues. Alas, this season was also its last. I can only assume it was cancelled because not enough people were watching it presently. I bet a whole bunch of people planned to watch its 7 year run when it was all over. Instead, in a year they'll get 2.5 abruptly truncated years. And that's a show that made it to air and survived.

News and sports are different. Nobody wants to watch old news or old sports. Given the choice between watching a current tournament or binge-watching last year's, most sports fans (and band-wagon jumpers) will watch the new.

Film is different. Sure you can catch old movies (from last year or last century) as part of the vast supply of home entertainment, but some movies REQUIRE immediate consumption and some movies MUST be watched in the cinema - so people go see movies and the industry marches on.

But I think with television we'll see a (continued?) decline in the quality of new content. More reality shows. More low-cost / low-quality Internet-style content. A few really high-quality hits that find an audience. And less and less social commentary and meaningful impact (The Walking Dead is a great show in my opinion, but I'm not sure it's teaching us much about the world we live in).

In previous centuries, Artists were the social commentators. Musicians used to do it. Authors and Film-makers still do. Television grew from new technology, to "boob tube" time-waster status, to meaningful art medium in about 70 years (?) For a while now, its content providers have been able to teach us a thing or two about the human condition. But will it survive another 10 in its present form if we all continue to treat it like a library, blindly hoping that someone else will pay for it?

Are we near the end of the television era? Will something come along that drives us viewers back to new content? Will the laws of supply-and-demand force a change that saves the day? 

Stay tuned...